The 45-day disclosure window is the most important variable in copy-trading. Every politician and hedge fund manager we track has a delay between when they trade and when you find out about it. But how much does that delay actually cost?
We analyzed our full dataset — 3,619 trades across 57 wallets — to quantify the real impact.
Two types of delay
Politicians (STOCK Act disclosures)
Under the STOCK Act, members of Congress must disclose trades within 45 days. The actual delay varies:
- Some file within days (faster filers like certain House members)
- Others take the full 45 days
- A few file late (penalty: a $200 fine — trivial compared to multi-million dollar trades)
For politician trades, we have both the trade date and the disclosure date in our data. The gap between them is the delay that costs you money.
Looking at Nancy Pelosi’s most recent disclosure (January 23, 2026): she traded AVGO on June 20-24, 2025, but the filing wasn’t published until July 9, 2025 — roughly 2-3 weeks of delay. Her AAPL sales from December 24-30, 2025, weren’t disclosed until January 23, 2026 — about 3-4 weeks.
13F filers (hedge funds)
13F filings work differently. They report positions as of the quarter-end date, with a 45-day filing deadline. A trade made on January 2nd might not appear until May 15th — over 4 months in the worst case.
The delay is fixed and structural: it’s always tied to the calendar quarter, not to when the trade actually happened.
The cost breakdown
The delay matters because of two effects:
1. Price movement during the gap
Between the trade date and disclosure date, the stock can move significantly. If a politician bought at $100 and the stock is at $115 when you find out, you’re already down 15% compared to their entry. Your copy-trade starts at $115, not $100.
For Pelosi’s portfolio, the 1-year copy-trade CAGR is +23.02%. That’s strong — but it’s the disclosure-date return. Her actual returns (buying at trade date) would be meaningfully higher. The difference is the “delay cost.”
2. Signal decay
Some trades work because of timing. A politician buying before an earnings beat or policy announcement captures value that may be fully priced in by disclosure. The information embedded in the trade decays over the 45-day window.
This effect is harder to quantify, but it explains why some trades that look brilliant at trade date look mediocre by disclosure date.
Comparing delay impact across wallets
The delay affects concentrated portfolios differently than diversified ones:
| Wallet | 1Y CAGR | Risk | Trades | Delay impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Moody | +76.51% | 0.24 | 14 | High — semiconductor momentum trades lose edge quickly |
| Fetterman | +73.07% | 0.12 | 1 | Low — single long-term hold, delay barely matters |
| Pelosi | +23.02% | 0.28 | 117 | Medium — frequent trading means constant delay exposure |
| Buffett | +7.14% | 0.17 | 179 | Low — long holding periods, the 45-day lag is noise |
Key insight: The delay hurts momentum traders most and long-term holders least. Fetterman’s single GOOG position (+73.07%) doesn’t care about a 3-week delay because the thesis plays out over months. Ashley Moody’s semiconductor trades (+76.51%) are more time-sensitive — the same trades entered 45 days later would likely return less.
Buffett is the extreme example on the institutional side. His average holding period is measured in years. The quarterly 13F delay is barely a rounding error for someone holding Coca-Cola since 1988.
Politicians vs 13F: which delay is worse?
| Factor | Politicians | 13F funds |
|---|---|---|
| Max delay | 45 days | ~135 days (trade in month 1 → disclosed month 4.5) |
| Typical delay | 2-4 weeks | 6-10 weeks |
| Trade-level data | Yes (each trade disclosed) | No (only quarter-end snapshot) |
| Frequency | Per-trade | Quarterly |
The 13F delay is structurally worse. Politicians disclose individual trades; 13F filers disclose quarter-end snapshots. A hedge fund could buy in January, sell in February, and the January 13F would show the position as of March 31 — you’d never know about the February exit until the June filing.
This is why copy-trading politicians often shows better results than copy-trading 13F filers — the data is more granular and the delay is shorter.
Minimizing the delay cost
You can’t eliminate the delay, but you can reduce its impact:
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Get alerts immediately. The moment a disclosure drops, act (or at least evaluate). The difference between seeing a filing on day 1 versus day 5 can matter. This is what we built TrueWallet to do.
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Favor long-term holders. Fetterman-style buy-and-hold positions are less delay-sensitive than Pelosi-style active trading. The thesis has time to play out regardless of your entry timing.
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Evaluate at current price. Don’t blindly buy because a politician bought 30 days ago. Ask: “At today’s price, does this still make sense?” Sometimes the answer is no.
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Watch for recurring buys. When a politician adds to the same position across multiple filings (Pelosi buying NVDA repeatedly throughout 2024-2025), the delay matters less because you have multiple entry opportunities.
The bottom line
The disclosure delay is real and it costs real money. Our data across 3,619 trades confirms that copy-trade returns are systematically lower than the politicians’ actual returns. But “lower” doesn’t mean “bad” — Pelosi’s copy-trade CAGR is still +23.02%, well above the S&P 500.
The delay is a tax on copy-trading, not a dealbreaker. Understanding it, accounting for it, and building strategies around it is what separates informed followers from blind copiers.
For the legal framework behind the delay, see our STOCK Act explainer. For practical copy-trading strategies, check the step-by-step guide.
